Film focus: rotations the key in loss to Lynx

Setting off on a road trip, the Valkyries struggled to overcome a little rust and a lot of Minnesota defensive execution.

To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best, and the Golden State Valkyries (9-8) didn’t exactly do that in their second loss of the season to the league-leading Minnesota Lynx (16-2).

While Minnesota played (and won) Thursday night after losing in the Commissioner’s Cup Final on Tuesday, we hadn’t seen Golden State for a week, and we hadn’t seen Eurobasketeers Janelle Salaün and Cecilia Zandalasini in much longer. Both played just under nine and a half minutes, suggesting that it was a re-acclimation game and the staff didn’t want to push the issue with six game in 11 days before the All-Star break. If you don’t think the re-acclimation was needed, just watch this clip:

Speaking of All-Star: Kayla Thornton was, very deservingly, named to her first All-Star team. Congratulations, Kayla!

Also, Iliana Rupert is apparently set to join the team from France on July 15, per Tom Compayrot of BeBasket, which will once again disrupt the rotation but also potentially add one of the team’s most talented players.

Let’s dig into the Lynx film.

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

Had Cassio been Othello’s assistant coach instead of his lieutenant, his famous quote would surely have been about rotation, rotation, rotation, rather than reputation.

So many in times this game, the Lynx rotated crisply and efficiently to negate ball movement from the Valkyries.

Many teams rotate the low defender from the corner as the helper on the drive; Minnesota is more eager than most to help high. Smith jumps over off Talbot, and McBride helps the helper in rotating to the wing. Recovering from her initial help, Smith Xs out to the corner, not only denying a corner three from Tiffany Hayes but also using her length to get a strip and force a turnover.

Minnesota is really, really good at this, rotating (and necessarily communicating) their way off the ball into the top defensive rating in the WNBA.

Here, Smith nail helps off Veronica Burton. Napheesa Collier rotates up to Burton from Talbot, Smith recovers to the cut behind the rotation with direction from Bridget Carleton, who forces Martin baseline into a trap from Smith, leading to a shot clock violation.

What the Lynx set out to do was help off Talbot consistently, and they put Collier on Talbot from the jump in order to give Collier the freedom to help. The Lynx bet against Talbot’s 22.2% three-point shooting coming into the game, and while she actually shot 50% from the field and 2/5 from deep, leading the Valkyries in plus-minus, it was a good bet to make for Minnesota.

I reversed the chronological order of the clips here to emphasize another prioritization from the Lynx, with Collier helping at the nail and then rotating to Hayes and betting on McBride to step up against the worse-shooting Talbot.

The Lynx were able to do this because Talbot started in place of Salaün, who was Collier’s matchup in the first game between the two teams.

Collier was much more concerned with Salaün, and the Valkyries used that to their benefit, with the offense flowing nicely and getting more dangerous looks putting Collier into the action instead of letting her wreak havoc as a helper. (For more on the offense in this one, and how that starting five would have looked, check out the second section of the KT piece.) In this one, Salaün played just nine minutes and made little impact on the game.

I want to emphasize that Talbot did some good things against Collier.

You can’t, however, do only good things against Collier.

That Hayes three bears more analysis. The Lynx use low defender help this time, with Jessica Shepard coming over from the corner to contest the drive. That leaves Carleton and McBride to shrink the floor against three spaced shooters, and Talbot finds the hot hand (Hayes shot 5/6 from deep) for three.

Hayes was extremely good moving off ball to counter the low help from Minnesota this game. When Collier helped off Talbot in the corner, Hayes moved off the ball to force a longer recovery from the defender helping the helper (first Carleton, then McBride), cashing in both times:

Excellent rotational counter from the team’s leading scorer in the game.

Early on, it looked as if that would be Thornton, who had 11 in the first on a combination of shot-making, offensive rebounding, and high IQ.

Really good cut behind the nail help (and find from Kaitlyn Chen), which Minnesota wasn’t able to pass off easily. But those sort of looks didn’t quite drop for Thornton in the second half, and when Talbot sat Collier moved to guard Thornton, limiting her opportunities.

Minnesota continued to execute in the second half.

They scram switch a roll to mitigate a mismatch, forcing a tough late-clock three. Then they shrink the floor and rotate perfectly off a low helper rotation, forcing a tough late-clock three. Finally, they X out off nail help and dissuade a Burton shot, winding up with another late-clock three by Talbot, the sort of shot Minnesota was happy to live with.

The Valkyries weren’t quite as sharp with their rotations. When they collapsed against a mismatch in the paint, the Lynx found the kickout.

When they nail helped, Minnesota made the simple pass and knocked it down more often than Golden State.

When they did rotate and closeout, Minnesota was able to attack the closeout (as was Hayes, who was, again, fantastic offensively).

Sometimes, they just didn’t finish a rotation to the shooter.

As a result, the Lynx finished them off.

There’s a reason two of GSV’s five lowest-scoring games of the season have come against Minnesota.

Ball pressure, Courtney Williams, mismatches, and other key factors

A few other Xs and Os aspects that played a role in this one.

Courtney Williams had an excellent game. That she took 14 shots, making six including three treys, was an indication of how much she was able to drive play and force the issue against the Valkyries.

Williams is one of the league’s pre-eminent midrange maestros:

She also worked this nice dump off in an exaggerated fake DHO with Shepard:

But Williams also forced the issue early when Golden State went under against her. The Valkyries started with Thornton on Williams, and had to quickly put Burton on her, and you can see head coach Natalie Nakase tell Chen to get up after Burton goes under and Williams hit a three in the second clip:

Quick matchup changes will take you out of your defensive gameplan, and winning that early battle was a plus for Minnesota.

The Valkyries countered by ramping up the ball pressure, which paid immediate dividends.

But it just didn’t click in quite the same way in the second half.

In fact, I’d make the qualitative observation that on the whole, Minnesota won the physical battle.

Ball pressure isn’t just about forcing turnovers, either. Minnesota took Golden State out of some of what they wanted by being the more physical team:

In the first clip (which should look familiar), Minnesota put on more pressure, leading Thornton to take a tougher three than her first look of the game from the same action. In the second clip, McBride fights through Martin’s downscreen with ease, enabling her to stay in front of Thornton and force a tough shot. Those small things turn into big differences over time.

That physicality may be part of Nakase’s frustration with the free throw total, which the Lynx led 15-8, with Golden State racking up 19 fouls and Nakase’s first career tech to Minnesota’s 14.

The Lynx also won the mismatch battle.

They did a good job of offensive rebounding over Burton, switched onto a big down low, and creating second-chance points, as well as getting the ball to Collier late in the clock (as they usually do), with an easier look with Burton having switched onto her earlier in the possession.

Minnesota doesn’t necessarily blow you out: with the Lynx, it’s death by a thousand cuts, and against the Valkyries, it was a thousand and one cuts, figuratively and literally.