Paint by Numbers
The Valkyries' shot selection through six games, what they're getting from getting to the paint, ever-changing lineups, and other clips.
We’re back after a short hiatus. Moving is not fun. On the fun side, the Monday-Thursday schedule will be in full effect for the foreseeable future.
When we last checked in on the Valkyries, they were a two-win team coming off the heels of a demonstrative loss to an inner-circle WNBA contender. Checking in on Golden State now, they’re a two-win team coming off the heels of a demonstrative loss (I’m lower on the Minnesota game than many, it seems) to an inner-circle WNBA contender. What’s new?
Well, Cecilia Zandalasini is here (with a hot start in her first game that I’m sure she’d have preferred to emerge against her friends in Minnesota), Tiffany Hayes is nose-dependent through no fault of her own, and the team continues to take shape, just in time for EuroBasket to wreak some roster havoc.
Let’s dive in.
Paint by Numbers
Our main topic this week—and, it seems, every other week—is Golden State’s shot selection. But where I’ve previously focused on threes, I now want to focus on paint scoring, which the Valkyries are a little short on.
The above should be a familiar graph: Golden State is taking threes at an unparalleled rate (50.1% of all field goal attempts, per WNBA.com) and fewer shots in the restricted area of the paint than any other team in the league.
That’s somewhat unfortunate, considering that the league is shooting a combined 60% in the restricted area compared to 40.1% in the non-restricted area, 36.8% in the midrange, and 33.5% from beyond the arc. The Valkyries’ 9.8 restricted-area attempts per game are a little more than a third of top-ranked Indiana’s 25.3. Golden State also hasn’t been the most efficient team when they do get to the rim. The Valks are scoring at a 57.6% clip in the paint, about half a standard deviation below league average.
That’s no cause for alarm, especially given the small sample size. Hit these three bunnies and the team restricted-area clip becomes 62%, above league average.
Other times, the ball gets to a dangerous area by design but doesn’t quite stick.
I also think the Valkyries have done a pretty good job getting to the paint, all things considered, even if they do it at a lower clip than most teams. As Nekias Duncan pointed out in his W Power Rankings for Bleacher Report, the Valkyries see a lot of switches and a lot of defenders go under screens. The counter to the latter is simply to shoot better; the counter to the former is to exploit switch mismatches better, which they did much better against the Liberty in the second game.
We saw the Billings' miss earlier, but it came against a post entry on a switch, which she rectified at the next opportunity; Temi Fágbénlé gets an appropriate post entry against Natasha Cloud—less of a mismatch than most guards—and only quick hands keep her from converting.
The Valkyries have been slowly trending upward in terms of paint scoring (after the opener, the blowout by the Liberty was the only game in which they scored fewer than a third of their points in the paint). As players get more familiar with other, chemistry on cuts develops.
The Valks have also cut from the slot more against nail help, instead of exclusively spacing their offball players in spread ballscreen looks:
(Getting into the paint or being open in the dunker spot off a slot cut, as Kayla Thornton does in the last clip, is a good way to draw fouls, which lead to super efficient free throws.)
I’m slightly overcomplicating a basic formula. Golden State, as everyone knows, wants to take a lot of three-pointers. To do that, you need to have a lot of players in position to shoot threes. That means you don’t have a lot of players getting to the restricted area, which means you don’t take a lot of shots at the rim. Finding the optimal balance between those is the entire story of offensive progression.
When I first made that same graph on May 25, Janelle Salaün had no shots in the restricted area. Here we are now:
She’s attacking the rim more, she’s finishing better, and she’s getting herself free points in the highest-of-value areas.
One final point about the value of getting to the rim: that causes defenses to collapse and/or rotate, which can create the very threes the Valkyries want to take.
A lot of themes crystallize here: Vanloo hits a post entry pass against a switch, the paint entry gets the defense into rotation, and Billings kicks it out for a wide open three. Salaün cuts to the rim and gets a little luck to turn a deflection into a wide open three. Finally, Veronica Burton slot cuts behind the nail help, which muddles the defensive rotation enough to create—you guessed it—an open three.
Golden State, by the way, allows the fewest restricted-area attempts per game of any team in the league—they know quite well the value of getting to the rim. We’ll save the deep dive into how they do that for another time (I’m not ready to dig or double into the defensive paint just yet, wink wink).
The paint points will come. Or, at least, the value of the paint points will.
Lineup Stuff
I didn’t realize Marisa Ingemi had a lineups article in the San Francisco Chronicle coming out yesterday. Perfect timing, though:
I won’t go into it too much, but essentially, injuries and European returns and roster development have the Valkryies playing more lineups per game (11.8) than any other team in the league. Their most common lineup—Vanloo, Burton, Salaün, Thornton, Fágbénlé—has only played 22 minutes, which is the least of any team’s most frequent five (Las Vegas, in the same six games, has had their top lineup play 85 minutes).
Here’s how that looks on a player basis:
You can see Salaün’s immediate place in the rotation, the guard arcs of Kate Martin and Carla Leite, and more. You can also see Tiffany Hayes’ missed time, which, as the best driver on the team, contributes to the team’s lack of restricted-area field goals:
Burton, Hayes, Salaün, Thornton, and Fágbénlé seem the starters of choice when healthy. The bench roles seem up for grabs. Eurobasket also looms large: here’s Eric Apricot on how that will affect Golden State.
Clip Dump
An assortment of random clips I thought were worth clipping.
KT’s reaction here defensively—love when the broadcast captures players demanding execution from teammates like this, especially when it’s a blown coverage against a former teammate in Sabrina Ionescu:
Really intrigued by this end-of-quarter double, defensively, from the Valks. There’s a lot of potential variability in end-of-quarter, shot-clock-off situations, so it’s cool to see unexpected defense, especially a wrinkle that nearly forces a turnover:
Two great plays the Valkyries should steal, because of how well they work with the Valkyries’s spacing and willingness to shoot 1-through-5:
We’ll be back on Monday with games against the Mercury (tonight) and Aces (Saturday) to review and another LA Sparks rematch (Monday) to preview.