It's the Leite Show, featuring the paint

Carla Leite's breakout game against the Seattle Storm is just the start, and her inside-the-arc scoring is the key factor.

Carla Leite’s first career start couldn’t have gone much better. The Golden State Valkyries’ rookie scored 14 points and was a game-high +15 in the Valkyries’ 76-70 win over the surging Seattle Storm, rightly drawing praise in the post-game presser and social media alike. Leite, in her first year in the WNBA, is just 21, and essentially is the Valkyries’ first-round pick after Golden State snagged her from Dallas in the expansion draft.

She still hasn’t found her rhythm beyond the arc (3/26, otherwise known as 11.5%) or much passing consistency (1.29 assist to turnover ration, which ranks 76th in the league, or 42nd of 56 players below 6 feet tall). The defense isn’t winning her any awards just yet, except in the hustle and getting-back-up department (which is good!).

We’re not here for any of that. We’re here for the paint.

The numbers

What Leite has found, just 10 games into her WNBA career, is an ability to finish at the rim.

Leite ranks highly, per HerHoopStats, in efficiency at the rim (75% field goal percentage, in the 85th percentile) and in the non-restricted area of the paint (55%, 89th percentile). Against Seattle on Saturday, she went 6/8 inside the arc, scoring all of her points from the field within 11 feet from the basket (as we discussed with Kayla Thornton, WNBA shot location data can be a little imprecise, but we’re going to roll with it for now).

Her efficiency near the basket is all the more impressive considering that the league lists her at 5 foot 9 inches, making her tied for the 23rd-shortest of the 165 players to play in at least one WNBA game this season. But while it’s easier to finish at the rim if you’re tall, Leite is in rare company when considering her ability to finish at the rim in conjunction with her height:

(All heights taken from the WNBA; n = 97.)

Only veteran 5’8 guard Natisha Hiedeman’s 73.3% (22/30) compares to Leite’s 72% (18/25), and the two stand alone among players listed shorter than 6 feet. And while Hiedeman is doing much of her work at the rim (19/22 in the restricted area, compared to Leite’s 9/12), Leite has been much better in the non-restricted area (11/19 vs. 6/14 for Hiedeman).

That’s a lot of numbers thrown at you. Let’s look at the film.

The film

I previously looked at the value of Golden State’s spacing and its relationship with getting into the paint. For Leite, it’s mostly been about getting into the paint, period.

Leite, a righty, has proven herself capable of finishing with either hand. I tracked all of her attempts inside the arc: she’s made 77% of layups with her right hand and 80% of attempts with her left.

She’s also more comfortable attacking downhill with her right hand in pick-and-roll if there’s any coverage confusion or the defensive leverage allows her to get to her right:

In isolation, she’s perfectly happy to go left:

Where Leite’s handedness really shows in on floaters, where she’s taken 7 with her right hand and none with her left (“floaters” is admittedly a nebulous term, but I went for, generally, elbow-up runners; I did not use WNBA shot type names, which are bad). Here, she gets to her right-handed floater even off downhill dribbles with the left:

She’s not perfect on floaters, especially from the baseline, but it’s a good shot to have in the arsenal considering her size and the inevitability of low help defense.

The last clip here shows one particular tendency that’s allowed Leite to get to the rim with some consistency. She consistently gets to the baseline when the Valkyries run empty pick-and-rolls with her as the ballhandler.

Sometimes that’s leaning into an ice coverage (pushing the ballhandler to the sideline) and capitalizing on the threat of the pop (first clip). Sometimes that’s accepting a rescreen to the wing and capitalizing on the momentary switch (second clip). Sometime that’s rejecting the screen and beating the wing leverage of the point-of-attack defender to create a wide open lane to the basket (third and sixth clips).

I do think Leite likes to get back to her right hand for off-balance finishes even when turning the corner left.

What this empty PnR effectiveness sets up, moreover, is optionality of efficiency. Because Leite can finish at the rim so effectively, defenses will have to respect and try to take away that wing drive. If they deny wing and still get beat, it’s a free two points, as above. If they ice and switch, that creates assist opportunities:

Good defenses can take away the baseline drive, pushing her middle and using nail help. The Liberty do a textbook job and force Leite into one of her worst looks inside the arc of the season:

(There’s that growth potential for passing. This is good defense from Sabrina Ionescu to deny wing. Aggressive nail help here from Natasha Cloud should see a quick dump-off to Veronica Burton.)

What will fully unlock Leite’s driving game is, ultimately, improved three-point efficiency. Backend defenders, knowing her 3/26 three-point shooting, can sit well below the level of the screen to discourage the drive (hello, floater). But if teams can’t play drop coverage because of good three-point shooting, backend defenders will be forced up to the level of the screen, giving her an easier time turning the corner to get into the paint or to capitalize, by herself or by passing, on a switch. In empty pick-and-roll, that’ll mean more assists, more ability to take the screen middle, and more success.

Building on the hot start at the rim will have the Leite Show’s ratings, along with the Valkyries’ fortunes, continuing to soar.